UK General Election 2019 and Labour’s Lost — I mean really lost!
So, what happened in the UK General Election 2019, and what next? What next for the country (apart from Brexit, do you know what Boris is going to do now or even what form Brexit will take?). And what next for the British Labour Party?
Let’s start with a chart (thank you BBC) which sums up ‘the Brexit effect’ and ‘the Corbyn effect’…
Boris Johnson wasn’t popular but he ran a successful campaign, with simple cut-through messages like ‘Let’s Get Brexit Done’, and Jeremy Corbyn broke new records for unpopularity (lower than Michael Foot in 1983).
Labour fudged it on Brexit (no-one was ever sure what Corbyn thought but most suspected he was anti-EU) and said they supported a second referendum which annoyed Labour voters who had voted Leave.
Labour voters in traditional heartlands who wanted to Leave the EU (including former mining towns that were decimated by the Thatcher Governments), shifted to the Conservatives. Labour Remain voters shifted to the LibDems.
Nationally, the Tories only increased their share of the vote by 1.2 points but the Labour vote collapsed…
And the Labour vote collapsed in its traditionally strong regions, notably the North East and Yorkshire & Humber (leading to seats like Ashfield, Bolsover, Blyth Valley…Grimsby….Wakefield turning to the Conservatives in historic shifts, despite most objective outside observers thinking that voters in these seats are unlikely to tangibly benefit from having a Conservative MP or a Conservative Government — remember folks, this is not necessarily rational!…
If this were rational, Labour would not only remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader (he’s said he will not contest another Election but seems to be wanting to go slowly), but fundamentally shift its strategy and policy positions with a leader who is popular and electable (remember that Tony Blair is the only Labour Leader to be elected in the past 45 years).
Facing a Conservative majority of 79, it makes it unlikely that Labour will win the next General Election in 2024, even if they change strategy & policies and elect a popular leader. Without these fundamental changes, it’s likely to be electoral wilderness for 10, 15 or 20 years.
But this is not rational, it’s emotional and political. Those who currently have power & influence within the Labour Party are convinced they are doing the right thing, doing all they can, travelling in the right direction, making progress…when the blinkers are on, it’s hard to see what is going on outside your narrow field of vision.
It’s like people who, in good faith, run charities and not-for-profit organisations and insist they are helping with all their activity even when there is no evidence of impact (or worse, evidence of harm rather than help).
Those currently running the British Labour Party need some tough love and honest feedback from their true friends.
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Paul Vittles FMRS FAMI FRSA has just re-located back to the UK from Australia. The UK General Election December 2019 has some similarities to the Australian Federal Election May 2019, except that Labour in the UK were expected to lose!
